Source: korybko.substack.com
Everything will depend on whether the terrorists are stopped outside of Aleppo; the outcome of any possible battle for that city; and how desperate Assad becomes if he loses control over it and the terrorists advance on Damascus.
The terrorist-designated Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), which is the rebranded form of the Al Qaeda-backed Al-Nusra, launched a surprise offensive in Aleppo this week. It’s already made a lot of progress due to the terrorists’ use of drones and other modern warfare tactics. These were reportedly taught to them by Ukraine according to reports in the run-up to the latest hostilities. Other reports included Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warning about a false-flag chemical weapons attack.
Syrian, Iranian, and Russian forces (including its aerospace ones) are currently trying to push back HTS’ advance. This intense fighting comes immediately after the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal, which that Iranian-backed Resistance group agreed to in spite of the late Nasrallah’s pledge not to do so without a ceasefire in Gaza first. It can therefore be interpreted as an Israeli victory despite Iran hailing this agreement and its ideologically aligned influencers spinning it as a Resistance victory.
With the Resistance objectively on the backfoot in the region, it makes sense why their HTS foes decided to go on the offensive at this specific moment, something that they’d clearly planned to do for a while. If the hostilities continue, then another large-scale humanitarian crisis might follow, which could see more internally displaced people in this war-torn country and some of them even fleeing to Europe. Terrorist sleeper cells elsewhere in the country might also awaken and reverse the progress of the past few years.
None of this would be possible without Turkiye’s support since all of HTS’ food, clothes, and arms come from that neighboring country in spite of Ankara formally designating it as a terrorist group. Erdogan’s prioritization of what he believes to be his country’s national interests, whether rightly or wrongly and regardless of morality, explains why he’s exploiting recent events to this end. He sees an opportunity to deliver a coup de grace to Syria for ending its long-running conflict on better terms for Turkiye….