Source: ZeroHedge.com
The 2024 election was truly a contest between traditional polling and betting markets; so-called nominative opinion polls cast through betting websites such as Peter Thiel-backed Polymarket. and Kalshi, where decentralized groups of individuals were able to wager on various contests in a hyper-efficient free market (notwithstanding regulators’ best efforts to limit access).
The day before the election, Bloomberg wrote: Election Gambling Markets Face Their Moment of Truth
The prevailing wisdom on Wall Street is that prediction markets have an edge over polls because participants are economically motivated to incorporate every drip of new information faster. Between a single forecasting model and the wisdom of a crowd that has digested all that information, the latter might reasonably do better.
After the election, the outlet noted that betting markets were thoroughly vindicated after the election – writing: Trump Win Boosts Prediction Markets That Nailed Election Outcome
“These markets will run the world,” said Thomas Peterffy, the billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers. “People tend to say what they want, but in these markets, they will bet the way they think the outcome will occur, not what they want the outcome to be. It takes the emotion out of these questions.”…