Source: korybko.substack.com
Lukashenko spoke only about a conventional invasion of his country by NATO, not an unconventional attack of the sort that he warned about earlier in the year with regard to Lithuanian- and Polish-based anti-government militants.
Lukashenko said that “an attack against Belarus will trigger World War III. Recently, Vladimir Putin has confirmed it having amended the nuclear doctrine. An attack on Russia and Belarus will trigger a nuclear response. He confirmed what I said. It was the main point of my statement. As soon as they attack us (NATO is still NATO. Americans and Poles are already lined up along the border, especially the Polish border. We know that the Polish leadership is already rubbing their hands), we use nuclear weapons.”
He added that “Russia will defend us. If we use nuclear weapons, they will do the same. And against Russia too. So Russia will use the entire arsenal of weapons. This will be a world war. The West does not want this. They are not ready for it. We tell them openly: the red line is the state border. You step on it, we will respond immediately. We are preparing for this. I am talking this openly and honestly. There are certain boundaries, limits. We need to negotiate with Ukrainians, we need to stop this war.”
This follows Putin explicit confirming what was already self-evident about Russia’s nuclear doctrine as explained here and comes amidst worries that Ukraine might be gearing up to invade Belarus’ southeastern city of Gomel just like it invaded Russia’s Kursk Region over the summer. Russia had earlier carried out tactical nuclear weapons exercises with Belarus and given Minsk the authority to use them at its discretion. Lukashenko therefore probably isn’t bluffing, but there might be an important catch….