Source: MoonOfAlabama.org
Last year the Canadian intelligence analyst Patrick Armstrong published this sound advice:
I’m fond of quoting the Duke of Wellington on intelligence:
All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavour to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called ‘guessing what was at the other side of the hill.’
“Find out what you don’t know by what you do“. It’s not easy, it’s not necessarily pleasant but it’s what you have to do in order to minimise your surprise when whatever it is actually comes over the hill at you.
Here’s former British Ambassador to Russia Laurie Bristow saying the same thing:
My advice to all young diplomats and analysts [is that] if you want to understand Mr Putin’s foreign policy, listen to what he’s saying. You won’t like it, but you need to understand it, you need to listen to it. The place to start is the Munich speech in 2007.
“Listen to what he says”. It’s quite easy to. Putin has said a lot and most of it appears on the Presidential website in English as well as the original Russian. Never read what the Western reporters say he says – they almost always distort it – read the original. I’m sure that both Wellington and Bristow would agree.
And that’s what intelligence is all about. Try and understand how the other guy sees things.
Every few years Putin comes out with a speech or memorandum which explains – past, presence and future – and argues for the position at large Russia is taking.
People who read these speeches will understand Russia. People who don’t won’t.
The later will miss the facts and come to false conclusions. Acting upon those they will weaken their own positions.
One can avoid doing so by reading Putin’s latest speech held yesterday at the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs. It is quite long but has to be so as it necessarily touches on everything. It includes a kind of peace offer for Ukraine: Hand over the provinces Russia has recognized at its own and gain peace. It was and is not expected that the ‘West’ will move towards that direction. In consequence the aims of the war will have to change.
With nearly 10,000 words the speech is very long. No summarization will do it justice. I therefore urge you to read it in full.
The English language version was published in full by Sputnik. The authoritative official translation, which will soon appear on the Kremlin website, is not yet complete. As access to both sides may be limited a full copy of the speech is attached below.
What follows is a full reproduction of the English language version Sputnik put out….